Manjori BorkotokyMarch 24, 2026Feature, GreenHouse Gas Emissions
https://climatefactchecks.org/wars-environmental-damage-how-conflicts-accelerate-global-warming/
Smoke rising from bombed cities signals human tragedy, but it also
signals something less visible and equally dangerous- a surge of
greenhouse gases warming the planet. Across Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, and
the Middle East, war is not only destroying homes and lives; it is
rapidly reshaping the climate. In conflict after conflict, the immediate
crisis overshadows a slower, quieter emergency unfolding overhead. Yet
scientists warn that the climate impacts of warfare are real,
measurable, and largely neglected by global climate policy.
Today’s wars inject millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere through massive fuel consumption, burning infrastructure,
razed ecosystems, and the carbon-intensive process of rebuilding
devastated cities. This hidden climate cost intensifies global warming
even as the world struggles to stay within the 1.5°C threshold.
Warfare’s Carbon Footprint: A Blind Spot in Climate Reporting
Despite their scale, military emissions remain one of the least
regulated and least reported sources of greenhouse gases. Under the
Paris Agreement, countries are not required to disclose the emissions
from military operations, leaving an enormous blind spot in global
climate action. This is described as the military emissions gap, warning that it distorts the world’s true carbon footprint.
Analyses by climate and conflict researchers suggest that global
military activities, even outside periods of intense conflict generate
approximately 5.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. This makes the
world’s militaries collectively comparable
to major industrial sectors like aviation and shipping. These emissions
are driven by everything from jet fuel used by fighter aircraft, to
diesel burned by tanks and armoured vehicles, to the smoke and dust from
destroyed buildings and burning fuel storage sites. Since countries are
not required to track or report these emissions, their true magnitude
remains largely unaccounted for in climate planning.
The Best-Measured Case: Ukraine War Emissions
The Ukraine war provides one of the clearest case studies of
conflict-related emissions because scientists have attempted to quantify
its full climate impact. A study estimates that the war generated roughly 77 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent in just the first 18 months.
These emissions came from continuous explosions, widespread fires,
and the vast amounts of fuel consumed by tanks, jets, and military
convoys. They were also a result of extensive damage to energy grids,
industrial sites, and fuel depots, many of which released additional
pollutants when destroyed. Forests, farmland, and grasslands, crucial
natural carbon sinks were burned or rendered unusable.
The study also warns that emissions associated with post-war
reconstruction could surpass the emissions generated during active
conflict, given the energy-intensive materials such as steel and cement
that rebuilding requires.
Gaza and the Middle East: When War Burns Fossil Fuel Infrastructure
The climate consequences of war are even more staggering when fossil fuel infrastructure is involved. An analysis
estimates that the Israel–Gaza war produced around 33 million tonnes of
CO₂-equivalent due to military operations, fires, debris, and
reconstruction demands.
Similarly, news reports
found that the first two weeks of the US–Israel conflict with Iran
released more than 5 million tonnes of CO₂ as oil depots, industrial
facilities, and urban centres burned. These emissions are comparable to
the annual output of dozens of low-emitting countries.
These conflicts demonstrate how warfare directly feeds into the
global emissions total, yet remains invisible in official climate
accounting.
War Destroys the Planet’s Natural Climate Buffers
War does not confine its destruction to urban landscapes. It also
ravages ecosystems that protect the planet from climate extremes.
According to the United Nations, conflict zones typically suffer
from widespread deforestation, polluted water systems, and long-term
land degradation, as well as the loss of wildlife and natural habitats.
In many war-torn regions, forests are burned or cut for survival
needs, irrigation systems are damaged, wetlands dry up, and coastal
zones lose essential natural protection. Toxic remnants of explosives,
heavy metals, and chemicals seep into soil and water, compromising
ecosystems for decades. As these systems collapse, the land loses its
ability to absorb and store carbon, turning carbon sinks into carbon
sources.
Rebuilding After War: A Massive Carbon Shock
When conflicts end, the climate impact continues through the massive
task of reconstruction. Rebuilding homes, schools, hospitals, bridges,
power stations, and transport networks requires enormous quantities of
steel, cement, and asphalt, all extremely carbon-intensive materials. In
fact, reconstruction emissions often rival or even exceed the emissions
produced during combat.
The study
on Ukraine warns that the rebuilding phase will lock the nation into
years of high emissions, as essential infrastructure must be replaced
almost entirely from scratch. This pattern will repeat in Gaza,
Mariupol, and other devastated cities around the world.
This means the climate burden of war extends decades beyond the conflict itself.
Climate Change and Conflict: A Dangerous Feedback Loop
The relationship between climate and conflict is a feedback loop:
climate change increases the risk of conflict, and conflict increases
the pace of climate change.
IPCC assessments and research
show that rising temperatures intensify resource scarcity, especially
in vulnerable regions where water, food and arable land are already
limited. These pressures can heighten political instability and
localized violence, even if they do not directly trigger major wars.
At the same time, an analysis
finds that higher military spending correlates with higher national
carbon intensity, suggesting that increased militarization is
fundamentally incompatible with achieving net-zero targets.
This creates a global cycle where insecurity drives emissions and emissions deepen insecurity.
Forced Displacement: The Human and Environmental Fallout
Conflicts displace millions of people, creating humanitarian crises
that carry environmental consequences of their own. Refugee camps and
displacement shelters often rely on diesel generators, energy-intensive
logistics networks, and rapid construction using temporary materials.
Forests near camps are frequently stripped for fuel, and water sources
become strained or polluted under the pressure of sudden population
growth.
While these emissions are relatively small compared to military
operations, they deepen environmental stress in already fragile regions.
The human suffering is immense, and the environmental toll adds another
layer of urgency to global responses to conflict and climate change.
Ecocide: The Legal Vacuum
Despite clear evidence of large-scale environmental destruction
during war, ecocide, the severe, widespread, or long-term damage to
ecosystems is still not recognised as an international crime by the
International Criminal Court. Under the ICC’s Rome Statute, only four crimes fall under its jurisdiction, and ecocide is not among them.
Meanwhile, UNEP’s environmental assessments
in conflict-affected regions including the ongoing crisis in Gaza, show
widespread, long-lasting ecosystem damage from polluted soil,
contaminated water, millions of tonnes of debris, and toxic
conflict-related waste that threatens human health, food security, and
long-term environmental resilience.
Yet, those responsible for environmentally destructive warfare face
little to no accountability under current international law, a gap highlighted by researchers noting that legal protections for ecosystems during armed conflict are weak or absent in most global treaties.
Satellite Evidence: The Planet Is Watching
Satellite data from NASA, ESA, and the Copernicus programme offers
independent evidence of war’s climate consequences. High-resolution
imagery has recorded CO₂ and methane plumes from burning oil depots,
extensive scorched forests, and massive dust clouds spreading over
borders. Air quality sensors have detected pollution spikes thousands of
kilometres from conflict sites. This imagery provides a stark, measurable record of the connections between warfare and environmental decline.
A South Asia Perspective: Why This Matters Here
For South Asia including India the link between conflict and climate
is particularly relevant. The Hindu Kush Himalayan region is warming faster
than the global average, threatening water availability for nearly two
billion people. Climate stress in the region has already contributed to
tensions over water, infrastructure, and border vulnerabilities.
Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean has emerged as a strategic zone where climate change is altering fisheries, migration patterns, and energy security, increasing militarization in parallel.
South Asia’s extreme climate vulnerability, combined with
geopolitical tension, means that conflicts in the region would have
devastating environmental and climate consequences.
What Needs to Happen Next
Experts argue that the world must urgently bring military emissions
into the centre of climate action. This includes mandating that
countries report their military-related emissions in national climate
inventories submitted to the UNFCCC. It also requires independent
environmental assessments of war zones, integrating climate-positive
strategies into reconstruction plans, and advancing the global campaign
to formally recognize ecocide as a crime.
Conflict prevention itself must be understood as a crucial form of
climate mitigation. Preventing wars prevents emissions and preserves
ecosystems that protect communities from climate extremes.
A Warming World Cannot Afford Endless War
The climate consequences of war do not disappear when the fighting
stops. The emissions linger, the ecosystems struggle to recover, and the
reconstruction phase adds another wave of carbon to the atmosphere. A
warming planet offers no reprieve or pause in the face of human
conflict; instead, it absorbs every plume of smoke and every tonne of
cement poured into rebuilding shattered cities.
If the world is serious about meeting its climate goals, military and
conflict-related emissions can no longer remain invisible. The planet
is already paying for these wars long after the guns fall silent."
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