Manjori BorkotokyMarch 24, 2026Feature, GreenHouse Gas Emissions
https://climatefactchecks.org/wars-environmental-damage-how-conflicts-accelerate-global-warming/
Smoke rising from bombed cities signals human tragedy, but it also signals something less visible and equally dangerous- a surge of greenhouse gases warming the planet. Across Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, and the Middle East, war is not only destroying homes and lives; it is rapidly reshaping the climate. In conflict after conflict, the immediate crisis overshadows a slower, quieter emergency unfolding overhead. Yet scientists warn that the climate impacts of warfare are real, measurable, and largely neglected by global climate policy.
Today’s wars inject millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere through massive fuel consumption, burning infrastructure, razed ecosystems, and the carbon-intensive process of rebuilding devastated cities. This hidden climate cost intensifies global warming even as the world struggles to stay within the 1.5°C threshold.
Warfare’s Carbon Footprint: A Blind Spot in Climate Reporting
Despite their scale, military emissions remain one of the least regulated and least reported sources of greenhouse gases. Under the Paris Agreement, countries are not required to disclose the emissions from military operations, leaving an enormous blind spot in global climate action. This is described as the military emissions gap, warning that it distorts the world’s true carbon footprint.
Analyses by climate and conflict researchers suggest that global military activities, even outside periods of intense conflict generate approximately 5.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. This makes the world’s militaries collectively comparable to major industrial sectors like aviation and shipping. These emissions are driven by everything from jet fuel used by fighter aircraft, to diesel burned by tanks and armoured vehicles, to the smoke and dust from destroyed buildings and burning fuel storage sites. Since countries are not required to track or report these emissions, their true magnitude remains largely unaccounted for in climate planning.
The Best-Measured Case: Ukraine War Emissions
The Ukraine war provides one of the clearest case studies of conflict-related emissions because scientists have attempted to quantify its full climate impact. A study estimates that the war generated roughly 77 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent in just the first 18 months.
These emissions came from continuous explosions, widespread fires, and the vast amounts of fuel consumed by tanks, jets, and military convoys. They were also a result of extensive damage to energy grids, industrial sites, and fuel depots, many of which released additional pollutants when destroyed. Forests, farmland, and grasslands, crucial natural carbon sinks were burned or rendered unusable.
The study also warns that emissions associated with post-war reconstruction could surpass the emissions generated during active conflict, given the energy-intensive materials such as steel and cement that rebuilding requires.
Gaza and the Middle East: When War Burns Fossil Fuel Infrastructure
The climate consequences of war are even more staggering when fossil fuel infrastructure is involved. An analysis estimates that the Israel–Gaza war produced around 33 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent due to military operations, fires, debris, and reconstruction demands.
Similarly, news reports found that the first two weeks of the US–Israel conflict with Iran released more than 5 million tonnes of CO₂ as oil depots, industrial facilities, and urban centres burned. These emissions are comparable to the annual output of dozens of low-emitting countries.
These conflicts demonstrate how warfare directly feeds into the global emissions total, yet remains invisible in official climate accounting.
War Destroys the Planet’s Natural Climate Buffers
War does not confine its destruction to urban landscapes. It also ravages ecosystems that protect the planet from climate extremes. According to the United Nations, conflict zones typically suffer from widespread deforestation, polluted water systems, and long-term land degradation, as well as the loss of wildlife and natural habitats.
In many war-torn regions, forests are burned or cut for survival needs, irrigation systems are damaged, wetlands dry up, and coastal zones lose essential natural protection. Toxic remnants of explosives, heavy metals, and chemicals seep into soil and water, compromising ecosystems for decades. As these systems collapse, the land loses its ability to absorb and store carbon, turning carbon sinks into carbon sources.
Rebuilding After War: A Massive Carbon Shock
When conflicts end, the climate impact continues through the massive task of reconstruction. Rebuilding homes, schools, hospitals, bridges, power stations, and transport networks requires enormous quantities of steel, cement, and asphalt, all extremely carbon-intensive materials. In fact, reconstruction emissions often rival or even exceed the emissions produced during combat.
The study on Ukraine warns that the rebuilding phase will lock the nation into years of high emissions, as essential infrastructure must be replaced almost entirely from scratch. This pattern will repeat in Gaza, Mariupol, and other devastated cities around the world.
This means the climate burden of war extends decades beyond the conflict itself.
Climate Change and Conflict: A Dangerous Feedback Loop
The relationship between climate and conflict is a feedback loop: climate change increases the risk of conflict, and conflict increases the pace of climate change.
IPCC assessments and research show that rising temperatures intensify resource scarcity, especially in vulnerable regions where water, food and arable land are already limited. These pressures can heighten political instability and localized violence, even if they do not directly trigger major wars.
At the same time, an analysis finds that higher military spending correlates with higher national carbon intensity, suggesting that increased militarization is fundamentally incompatible with achieving net-zero targets.
This creates a global cycle where insecurity drives emissions and emissions deepen insecurity.
Forced Displacement: The Human and Environmental Fallout
Conflicts displace millions of people, creating humanitarian crises that carry environmental consequences of their own. Refugee camps and displacement shelters often rely on diesel generators, energy-intensive logistics networks, and rapid construction using temporary materials. Forests near camps are frequently stripped for fuel, and water sources become strained or polluted under the pressure of sudden population growth.
While these emissions are relatively small compared to military operations, they deepen environmental stress in already fragile regions. The human suffering is immense, and the environmental toll adds another layer of urgency to global responses to conflict and climate change.
Ecocide: The Legal Vacuum
Despite clear evidence of large-scale environmental destruction during war, ecocide, the severe, widespread, or long-term damage to ecosystems is still not recognised as an international crime by the International Criminal Court. Under the ICC’s Rome Statute, only four crimes fall under its jurisdiction, and ecocide is not among them.
Meanwhile, UNEP’s environmental assessments in conflict-affected regions including the ongoing crisis in Gaza, show widespread, long-lasting ecosystem damage from polluted soil, contaminated water, millions of tonnes of debris, and toxic conflict-related waste that threatens human health, food security, and long-term environmental resilience.
Yet, those responsible for environmentally destructive warfare face little to no accountability under current international law, a gap highlighted by researchers noting that legal protections for ecosystems during armed conflict are weak or absent in most global treaties.
Satellite Evidence: The Planet Is Watching
Satellite data from NASA, ESA, and the Copernicus programme offers independent evidence of war’s climate consequences. High-resolution imagery has recorded CO₂ and methane plumes from burning oil depots, extensive scorched forests, and massive dust clouds spreading over borders. Air quality sensors have detected pollution spikes thousands of kilometres from conflict sites. This imagery provides a stark, measurable record of the connections between warfare and environmental decline.
A South Asia Perspective: Why This Matters Here
For South Asia including India the link between conflict and climate is particularly relevant. The Hindu Kush Himalayan region is warming faster than the global average, threatening water availability for nearly two billion people. Climate stress in the region has already contributed to tensions over water, infrastructure, and border vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean has emerged as a strategic zone where climate change is altering fisheries, migration patterns, and energy security, increasing militarization in parallel.
South Asia’s extreme climate vulnerability, combined with geopolitical tension, means that conflicts in the region would have devastating environmental and climate consequences.
What Needs to Happen Next
Experts argue that the world must urgently bring military emissions into the centre of climate action. This includes mandating that countries report their military-related emissions in national climate inventories submitted to the UNFCCC. It also requires independent environmental assessments of war zones, integrating climate-positive strategies into reconstruction plans, and advancing the global campaign to formally recognize ecocide as a crime.
Conflict prevention itself must be understood as a crucial form of climate mitigation. Preventing wars prevents emissions and preserves ecosystems that protect communities from climate extremes.
A Warming World Cannot Afford Endless War
The climate consequences of war do not disappear when the fighting stops. The emissions linger, the ecosystems struggle to recover, and the reconstruction phase adds another wave of carbon to the atmosphere. A warming planet offers no reprieve or pause in the face of human conflict; instead, it absorbs every plume of smoke and every tonne of cement poured into rebuilding shattered cities.
If the world is serious about meeting its climate goals, military and conflict-related emissions can no longer remain invisible. The planet is already paying for these wars long after the guns fall silent."
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