Friday, 24 January 2020

Why Sustained Climate Change Mitigation Doesn’t Stand a Chance: A Conspiracy of Natural and Psychological Forces: Medium


Almost 90% of Americans are avoiding climate change activism.

Recent research shows that at least 40% of Americans are concerned or even alarmed about global warming, But only 13% say they have called their elected officials or joined an activist group. One question on many minds is, despite saying they are alarmed and concerned, why aren’t the other 87% of Americans demanding policy changes that would curb greenhouse gases?
Photo by Glenn Fay
Apathy
It is easy to attribute climate activism avoidance to apathy. By definition, apathy is indifference, lack of interest, concern, or enthusiasm. That would seem to explain it. Yet the same survey, done by YPCC shows that 29% say they are indeed concerned about global warming. If they are concerned then that would mean that they shouldn’t be apathetic. Maybe they are concerned and they behave as if they are apathetic because something else is going on.

Per Espen Stoknes, in his book, What We Think About When we try not to Think About Global Warming, says that a lot of people are depressed about climate destabilization and environmental damage. Apathy can be one symptom of depression and maybe people are concerned and alarmed but depressed about it and therefore act apathetic.

The Bystander Effect

Another well-known phenomenon in psychology describes the diffusion of responsibility that occurs with large groups of people, called “the bystander effect”. The theory goes, when something bad happens, the larger the number of people that are present, the less likely an individual is to take action in an emergency.
In the bystander effect scenario, we could be bystanders to the slow heating of the earth’s atmosphere and systematic climate destabilization, but most of us assume someone else will surely take care of it. After all, the Chinese are still building coal-burning power plants. And if we do take action many of us believe we have little power to have an impact. The logic goes, others who do have more responsibility than us will surely take action. In this way, the majority of concerned and alarmed Americans stand by and assume someone else will take action.

Carbon Addiction

There is a third and more nefarious reason that concerned and alarmed Americans might not be taking action. And this reason is not something very many people are talking about. And the reason is that admitting it might reflect poorly on our morals. This third possible reason is that we are “carbon-addicts” and we are afraid that taking action might result in changing our lifestyles and identities.

How can we possibly become climate activists when we know, deep down inside, that it will threaten our supersized American consumption and the affluence of our resource-rich lifestyles? Will it threaten our personal attractiveness, our commodity culture, driving SUVs, flying around the world regularly, enjoying our carnivorous eating habits, shopping sprees, plentiful water, and unlimited energy that we have worked so hard to enjoy ? Especially when our egos and identities are built on those markers of our success?
In short — we can’t. So we create plausible deniability. It’s much easier to ignore it, to be skeptical, to not have time, and to find excuses instead of taking action. Climate activist avoidance is driven by all three of these reasons. But that’s not all.

Dynamic Conservatism

Did you ever notice how slow big institutions and corporations are to change? In the 1970’s MIT professor Donald Schon coined the term “dynamic conservatism” to describe how organizations inherently fight to avoid change. Dynamic conservatism in our government and society is reinforced by a marketplace that saturates our habitual lifestyles with our preoccupation with cars, consumption, meat-based diets, development, and all of the things that lead to more carbon in the atmosphere.

Photo by Glenn Fay
When political contributions and subsidies are added to the equation, the deck is stacked in favor of continued fossil fuel production and pollution. Schon suggested that learning, reflection, and perceptual change is needed to overcome dynamic conservatism. But the U.S. shows no signs of becoming a learning-oriented society now or any time in the future.

Sustained Leadership

Even if the vast majority of Americans became alarmed about climate change and realized they are like the frog in a beaker of water slowly heating up on a hot plate, our government leaders are heavily influenced by fossil fuel companies and big money.  

According to Forbes, we spend more on fossil fuel subsidies ($5.2 trillion a year) than we do on education. We don’t have the “sustained leadership” to make courageous changes in energy policy.

Sure, there are bright spots with some Green New Deal advocates and states taking the lead on renewables, local food production, planting trees, saving energy, and other fronts. We have students holding climate strikes and threatening to vote green in a few years.

But even if the next presidential administration and all of the countries around the world were to immediately take action on decarbonization, it would only be temporary until the next pro-fossil fuel oriented leaders come into power and reverse those changes. We are kidding ourselves to think that the green sea change is stable and consistent enough to actually result in a sustained period of enormous policy changes that would lead to significant decarbonization.

So no matter how encouraging the pockets of increasing climate awareness look, the reality is that our leaders and most of us will continue to be addicted to the idea of free or relatively cheap carbon-dumping in the atmosphere, regardless of the planetary consequences.

Should we give up on climate action? Absolutely not. Even though serious climate change mitigation may be impossible, anything we can do to decarbonize and avoid a runaway greenhouse effect depicted by the most hellish IPCC scenarios is a step in the right direction.

We can turn around apathy by promoting the opportunity for a prosperous green economy, our improved health, plentiful food, water, and military security. We can model civic responsibility, coach and cajole people to upend the bystander effect in order to inspire bystanders to pitch in. We can strive for and promote a learning society and attempt to elect leaders who will fight to reduce carbon in the air.

But it’s a much harder, maybe impossible sell to convince someone living in relative affluence and slack, who has a mindset rooted in hard work, prosperity, and entitled consumption that they need to actively fight the institutions that made their lifestyle possible, rather than enjoy what they think they so richly deserve.


Climate Change is a cause of attacks on democracy


As the climate crisis worsens and conflict increases over scarce resources expect more threats to authentic democracy.


In The Maldives

President Abdulla Yameen of the Maldives. AFP/Getty


"According to a 2017 study published in The Lancet, extreme weather could displace up to a billion people around the world by the middle of the twenty-first century—an unprecedented human migration will undoubtedly influence the politics of wealthy countries, pushing them to the right.
The best way to counteract this phenomenon is naturally to halt, or at least slow, the effects of climate change. So far, the Paris agreement is the only tangible result of those efforts, and its fate is far from certain .............  But this might change, if the problems caused by climate change—not just stronger hurricanes, droughts, and rising seas, but political rupture—keep washing up on the disappearing shorelines of wealthy governments."

Go to The New Republic article



Around the world



"In its 5th Assessment Report (2014), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) unequivocally confirmed that climate change is real and that human-made greenhouse gas emissions are its primary cause. The report identified the increasing frequency of extreme weather events and natural disasters, rising sea-levels, floods, heat waves, droughts, desertification, water shortages, and the spread of tropical and vector-borne diseases as some of the adverse impacts of climate change. These phenomena directly and indirectly threaten the full and effective enjoyment of a range of human rights by people throughout the world, including the rights to life, water and sanitation, food, health, housing, self-determination, culture and development."

Go to the ohchr.org story



In Australia


"Scott Morrison (Australia's Prime Minister) has signalled a crackdown on “selfish, indulgent and apocalyptic” environmental activists."
Go to The New Daily story 







"It takes some chutzpah to stand up with a straight face and deliver a speech foreshadowing a government crackdown on protest activity while in the same breath declaring that a new insidious form of progressivism is intent on denying the liberties of Australians."

Go to The Guardian story
 


Our democratic freedoms are under threat in Australia and around the world.


Australian Federal Police raid the ABC offices

"Source confidentiality is one of journalists’ most central ethical principles. It is recognised by the United Nations and is vital to a functioning democracy and free, independent, robust and effective media. 

Go to The Conversation article



"If the major parties and politicians want to rebuild trust with voters, they will need to change the way they do politics: stop misusing their entitlements, strengthen political donations laws, tighten regulation of lobbyists, and slow the revolving door between political offices and lobbying positions."

Let's safeguard our democratic institutions such as free speech, restrictions on overwhelming amounts of corporate donations to political parties, freedom to protest, freedom to privacy, freedom to gather.
 

In the USA

Go to The Atlantic article: David Goldman / AP


"As heat, disaster risks, and rising seas bombard local governments, the ability of those governments to fulfill their basic functions—the delivery of services, the maintenance of the safety net, and managing civil, familial, and educational institutions—could be degraded, too. This could manifest in three distinct phenomena that are already on display in disaster-affected areas: the increased dominance of private and developer-class interests in local politics, the acceleration of existing wealth inequality, and the collapse of institutions dedicated to disaster response."

Go to The Atlantic article



Prominent media corporations are supporting climate deniers, fossil fuel dependent corporations and corporations whose profits depend on degrading the human environment.

Let's care for our vulnerable. 

Lets support action plans (see below) to tackle climate change.

Go to World Bank document


Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Sea Level Rise: It’s Probably Worse Than You Think: Medium


As you know, this newsletter is usually fairly inspiring. But this one is not (overall). And that’s because we really need to talk about sea level rise again.
Sorry, but the stakes are insanely high and everyone needs to know about this stuff!
That being said, I do end with an action you can take to help if you so choose! …Or you can just tell your friends about this mind-bending sea level rise predicament. Talking about these things and finding new ways to help together is always good.

Key Takeaways:

  • We’ve locked in about 7.5 ft (2.3 m) of sea level rise already.
  • Sea levels will likely be at least 3.3 ft (1 m) higher by 2100.
  • Last time Earth got this hot, sea levels were way, WAY higher.
  • Ice loss in Greenland and Antarctica is decades ahead of schedule. There’s been significant acceleration.
The fact of the matter is that coastal cities around the world will eventually have to make sci-fi adaptations or retreat…but I’m getting ahead of myself.



Thursday, 9 January 2020

Climate Change is a cause of attacks on democracy

As the climate crisis worsens and conflict increases over scarce resources expect more threats to authentic democracy.


In The Maldives

President Abdulla Yameen of the Maldives. AFP/Getty


"According to a 2017 study published in The Lancet, extreme weather could displace up to a billion people around the world by the middle of the twenty-first century—an unprecedented human migration will undoubtedly influence the politics of wealthy countries, pushing them to the right.

The best way to counteract this phenomenon is naturally to halt, or at least slow, the effects of climate change. So far, the Paris agreement is the only tangible result of those efforts, and its fate is far from certain .............  But this might change, if the problems caused by climate change—not just stronger hurricanes, droughts, and rising seas, but political rupture—keep washing up on the disappearing shorelines of wealthy governments."

Go to The New Republic article



Around the world



"In its 5th Assessment Report (2014), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) unequivocally confirmed that climate change is real and that human-made greenhouse gas emissions are its primary cause. The report identified the increasing frequency of extreme weather events and natural disasters, rising sea-levels, floods, heat waves, droughts, desertification, water shortages, and the spread of tropical and vector-borne diseases as some of the adverse impacts of climate change. These phenomena directly and indirectly threaten the full and effective enjoyment of a range of human rights by people throughout the world, including the rights to life, water and sanitation, food, health, housing, self-determination, culture and development."

Go to the ohchr.org story



In Australia



"Scott Morrison (Australia's Prime Minister) has signalled a crackdown on “selfish, indulgent and apocalyptic” environmental activists."
Go to The New Daily story 







"It takes some chutzpah to stand up with a straight face and deliver a speech foreshadowing a government crackdown on protest activity while in the same breath declaring that a new insidious form of progressivism is intent on denying the liberties of Australians."

Go to The Guardian story
 


Our democratic freedoms are under threat in Australia and around the world.


Australian Federal Police raid the ABC offices

"Source confidentiality is one of journalists’ most central ethical principles. It is recognised by the United Nations and is vital to a functioning democracy and free, independent, robust and effective media. 

Go to The Conversation article



"If the major parties and politicians want to rebuild trust with voters, they will need to change the way they do politics: stop misusing their entitlements, strengthen political donations laws, tighten regulation of lobbyists, and slow the revolving door between political offices and lobbying positions."

Let's safeguard our democratic institutions such as free speech, restrictions on overwhelming amounts of corporate donations to political parties, freedom to protest, freedom to privacy, freedom to gather.
 

In the USA

Go to The Atlantic article: David Goldman / AP


"As heat, disaster risks, and rising seas bombard local governments, the ability of those governments to fulfill their basic functions—the delivery of services, the maintenance of the safety net, and managing civil, familial, and educational institutions—could be degraded, too. This could manifest in three distinct phenomena that are already on display in disaster-affected areas: the increased dominance of private and developer-class interests in local politics, the acceleration of existing wealth inequality, and the collapse of institutions dedicated to disaster response."

Go to The Atlantic article




Prominent media corporations are supporting climate deniers, fossil fuel dependent corporations and corporations whose profits depend on degrading the human environment.

Let's care for our vulnerable. 

Lets support action plans (see below) to tackle climate change.

Go to World Bank document




Monday, 30 December 2019

Stanford Researchers Have an Exciting Plan to Tackle The Climate Emergency Worldwide: Science Alert

Things are pretty dire right now. Giant swaths of my country are burning as I write this, at a scale unlike anything we've ever seen. Countless animals, including koalas, are perishing along with our life-supporting greenery. People are losing homes and loved ones.
These catastrophes are being replicated around the globe ever more frequently, and we know exactly what is exacerbating them. We know we need to rapidly make some drastic changes - and Stanford researchers have come up with a plan

Using the latest data available, they have outlined how 143 countries around the world can switch to 100 percent clean energy by the year 2050. 

This plan could not only contribute towards stabilising our dangerously increasing global temperatures, but also reduce the 7 million deaths caused by pollution every year and create millions more jobs than keeping our current systems.

The plan would require a hefty investment of around US$73 trillion. But the researchers' calculations show the jobs and savings it would earn would pay this back in as little as seven years.
"Based on previous calculations we have performed, we believe this will avoid 1.5 degree global warming," environmental engineer and lead author Mark Jacobson told ScienceAlert.

"The timeline is more aggressive than any IPCC scenario - we concluded in 2009 that a 100 percent transition by 2030 was technically and economically possible - but for social and political reasons, a 2050 date is more practical."

Here's how it would work. The plan involves transitioning all our energy sectors, including electricity, transport, industry, agriculture, fishing, forestry and the military to work entirely with renewable energy.

Jacobson believes we have 95 percent of the technology we need already, with only solutions for long distance and ocean travel still to be commercialised.

"By electrifying everything with clean, renewable energy, we reduce power demand by about 57 percent," Jacobson explained.
He and colleagues show it is possible to meet demand and maintain stable electricity grids using only wind, water, solar and storage, across all 143 countries.

These technologies are already available, reliable and respond much faster than natural gas, so they are already cheaper. There's also no need for nuclear which takes 10-19 years between planning and operation, biofuels that cause more air pollution, or the invention of new technologies.

"'Clean coal' just doesn't exist and never will," Jacobson says, "because the technology does not work and only increases mining and emissions of air pollutants while reducing little carbon, and their is no guarantee at all the carbon that is captured will stay captured."

The team found that electrifying all energy sectors makes the demand for energy more flexible and the combination of renewable energy and storage is better suited to meet this flexibility than our current system. 
This plan "creates 28.6 million more full-time jobs in the long term than business as usual and only needs approximately 0.17 percent and approximately 0.48 percent land for new footprint and distance respectively," the researchers write in their report.

Building the infrastructure necessary for this transition would, of course, create CO2 emissions. The researchers calculated that the necessary steel and concrete would require about 0.914 percent of current CO2 emissions. But switching to renewables to produce the concrete would reduce this.

With plans this big there are plenty of uncertainties, and some inconsistencies between databases. The team takes these into account by modelling several scenarios with different levels of costs and climate damage.

"You're probably not going to predict exactly what's going to happen," said Jacobson. "But there are many solutions and many scenarios that could work."

Technology writer Michael Barnard believes the study's estimates are quite conservative - skewing towards the more expensive technologies and scenarios.
"Storage is a solved problem," he writes for CleanTechnica. "Even the most expensive and conservative projections as used by Jacobson are much, much cheaper than business as usual, and there are many more solutions in play."

The authors of the report stress that while implementing such an energy transition, it is also crucial that we simultaneously tackle emissions coming from other sources like fertilisers and deforestation.

This proposal could earn push-back from industries and politicians that have the most to lose, especially those with a track record of throwing massive resources at delaying our progress towards a more sustainable future. Criticisms of the team's previous work have already been linked back to these exact groups

But "the costs of transitioning have dropped so low, transitions are occurring even in places without policies," said Jacobson. "For example, in the US, 9 out of the 10 states with the most wind power installed are Republican-voting states with few or no policies promoting wind power."

Over 60 countries have already passed laws to transition to 100 percent renewable electricity by between 2020 and 2050. This guide can give them and other countries an example of how this can practically be done.

"There's really no downside to making this transition," Jacobson explained to Bloomberg. "Most people are afraid it will be too expensive. Hopefully this will allay some of those fears."

At least 11 independent research groups agree this type of transition is possible, including energy researchers Mark Diesendorf and Ben Elliston from University of New South Wales, Australia.

They reviewed major criticisms of 100 percent renewable energy transition plans and concluded "the principal barriers to [100 percent renewable electricity systems] are neither technological nor economic, but instead are primarily political, institutional and cultural."

So, multiple lines of evidence insist we have the technology, resources and knowledge to make this possible. The only question is, can enough of us put aside our fears and ideologies to make it happen?

"The biggest risk is that the plans are not implemented quickly enough," Jacobson said. "I hope people will take these plans to their policymakers in their country to help solve these problems."
The report has been published in the journal One Earth; more details for individual countries can be found here.

TESSA KOUMOUNDOUROS
27 DEC 2019



#jailclimate criminals 

See also:

Sick of compromises and wary of those who suggest compromise

Sunday, 29 December 2019

Sick of compromises and wary of those who suggest compromise


Soft words

Softly, softly approaches
Compromises, are fit for negotiating colour schemes, diets, games,
Not when talking of the need for crisis climate action
When the science is clear
When you can’t compromise on facts.
When human existence is at stake.

Can we cease our headlong, headstrong rush to species annihilation
Prevent the greedy destruction of our only planet, and
Call out those who trust in prayers and loving thoughts to clean up a man-made catastrophe.

Sick of compromises and wary of those who suggest compromise
And ‘sweet’ pieces of research that nudge us towards a gentle, soothing, less challenging way to swing opinions?
Have the advocates of compromise been duped, dudded, diddled or paid off in some way?

Let’s act NOW.

If I have no hope for the planet, why am I so determined to have this baby?

I wonder if my child will ever have the innocence I had two months ago, of not having to think about whether the air will kill you

Sitting, nauseous with morning sickness, on a park bench in the bright heat of an unusually hot spring day my partner and I watch children march past us, striking from school:
“What’s the point of an education if we have no future,” their signs say.

My heart relocates itself, sinking down somewhere around my ankles. They have 10 more years of habitable planet than the baby I am carrying.

In early summer of the same year, after a miscarriage, I find myself pregnant again in the week that megafires tear through the state. 

There are 70-metre flames producing their own weather systems, driving them further on across the countryside, through the bushland that relies on fire to stimulate new life, on to forests that have never before burnt.

Read he Guardian

Related: 

Climate change deniers’ new battle front attacked : The Guardian