"China’s road to net-zero emissions
The new study contains many significant recommendations; key among them is the timeline for China’s decarbonization.
When Xi Jinping announced the goal of carbon neutrality
by 2060, it was broadly interpreted to refer to carbon dioxide, the main
gas driving global warming, and not other greenhouse gases, like methane
or nitrous oxide. But the researchers suggest otherwise, saying China
should reach net-zero for all greenhouse gases by 2060, and net-zero for
carbon dioxide by 2050.
In his presentation of the results on Monday, He Jiankun,
a Tsinghua professor and climate expert who co-led the study, said his
understanding is that Xi’s goal of “carbon neutrality” by 2060 was
referring to all greenhouse gases. An expert source told China Dialogue
that this interpretation shouldn’t be understood as the official
government stance until it is further clarified. But if official, it
would mean China would have to cut emissions more rapidly over the
coming decades.
The research also shows what net-zero emissions might
look like for the world’s top emitter. Under their net-zero emissions
scenario, the researchers propose almost entirely replacing fossil fuels
with clean energy in the electricity sector, leaving coal power at less
than 5 percent of power generation — a massive drop from the almost 70 percent coal supplied in 2019." .....
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.... "What to watch for in the coming year
Although this new study has strong backing from people
with connections to the highest levels of government, its place in
China’s official plans will be clearer when China submits its
“mid-century strategy,” a document that all signatories of the Paris
Agreement are requested to complete by
the end of 2020 to chart out long-term decarbonization. (China is
expected to release this document sometime in the next few months.)
As for more immediate decision-making, the study authors
also recommend that China upgrade its climate and energy targets under
the Paris Agreement and in its five-year plan. China’s carbon emissions
are still growing — last year saw a 2 percent
increase — so the authors advise that the next five-year plan set a
hard cap on carbon emissions at 10.5 billion tons. As for setting new
Paris Agreement targets this year, one key recommendation is to up the
2030 target from 20 percent non-fossil fuel energy generation to 25
percent to speed China’s renewable energy build-out.
Whether China adopts these upgraded targets in the coming
months will be a first real indication of how and when the country
plans to get to net zero."
Go to Vox article
Related: A nine-point plan for the UK to achieve net zero carbon emissions (excerpts): Guardian
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