Ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica whose melting rates are
rapidly increasing have raised the global sea level by 1.8cm since the
1990s, and are matching the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's
worst-case climate warming scenarios.
According
to a new study from the University of Leeds and the Danish
Meteorological Institute, if these rates continue, the ice sheets are
expected to raise sea levels by a further 17cm and expose an additional
16 million people to annual coastal flooding by the end of the century.
Since the ice sheets were first monitored by satellite in the 1990s,
melting from Antarctica has pushed global sea levels up by 7.2mm, while
Greenland has contributed 10.6mm. And the latest measurements show that
the world's oceans are now rising by 4mm each year.
"Although we anticipated the ice sheets would lose increasing amounts
of ice in response to the warming of the oceans and atmosphere, the
rate at which they are melting has accelerated faster than we could have
imagined," said Dr. Tom Slater, lead author of the study and climate
researcher at the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling at the
University of Leeds.
"The melting is overtaking the climate models we use to guide us, and we are in danger of being unprepared for the risks posed by sea level rise."
• We are
looking more and more unlikely to prevent global heating.
• Scientists are predicting the melting of the ice covering Greenland with a
subsequent sea level rise of 7m.
• This
rise does not factor in sea rise from the melting of Antarctica and other ice.
"The Antarctic ice sheet, most of which is in East Antarctica, is
Earth’s largest freshwater reservoir. If it all melts, it could lead to a
60-meter rise in global sea levels. Current predictions estimate global sea
levels will rise one meter by 2100 and more than 15 meters by 2500."
SciTechDaily
• Already many properties are likely to flood when a high tide is combined with
high local rainfall. What were a hundred year rainfall events are now ten year
events.
• The frequency of high rainfall events will increase with global heating and
more and more severe hurricanes are predicted because of warmer seas.
• Low coastal areas will be subjected to severe storm surges.
• Would you buy a property likely to be inundated in twenty years, fifty years,
a hundred years? Many wouldn't. Even the perception of possible inundation will
greatly affect property values.
• When certain properties are in less demand their value falls.
• Would you buy a property with a value likely to fall?
Predicted flooding of Newcastle, NSW, with a conservative 1.4m sea
rise
•
The view of Newcastle above shows areas likely to be inundated by a
conservative 1.4m sea level rise.
• Property above a 10m rise will become highly sought after and will greatly
rise in value.
Predicted flooding of Newcastle, NSW, with a 10m sea rise
• The view of Newcastle above shows areas likely to be inundated by a 10m
sea level rise.
• Property above a 10m rise
will become highly sought after and will greatly rise in value.
Learn more about how sea rise inundation will affect Australian property.
These appear to be the
current planning guidelines for sea rise in NSW. Many scientists would say they
are too conservative.
"Sea Level
Rise Planning Benchmarks This Guideline adopts the NSW sea level rise planning
benchmarks in the NSW Sea Level Rise Policy Statement (2009). The NSW sea level
rise planning benchmarks are an increase above 1990 mean sea levels of 40cm by
2050 and 90cm by 2100. These benchmark figures were established by considering
the most credible national and international projections of sea level rise for
the NSW coast and take into consideration the uncertainty associated with sea
level rise projections. These benchmark figures are to be used in NSW when
planning for sea level rise.
NSW
Coastal Planning guideline: adapting to Sea Level Rise August 2010 "
Newcastle with a 0.7m sea rise by 2100, below the 2010 official government planning estimate of 0.9m.
"Ice is melting at a surprisingly fast rate underneath Shirase
Glacier Tongue in East Antarctica due to the continuing influx of warm
seawater into the Lützow-Holm Bay.
Hokkaido University
scientists have identified an atypical hotspot of sub-glacier melting
in East Antarctica. Their findings, published in the journal Nature Communications,
could further understandings and predictions of sea level rise caused
by mass loss of ice sheets from the southernmost continent.
The 58th Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition had a very rare
opportunity to conduct ship-based observations near the tip of East
Antarctic Shirase Glacier when large areas of heavy sea ice broke up,
giving them access to the frozen Lützow-Holm Bay into which the glacier
protrudes.
“Our data suggests that the ice directly beneath the Shirase Glacier
Tongue is melting at a rate of 7–16 meters per year,” says Assistant
Professor Daisuke Hirano of Hokkaido University’s Institute of Low
Temperature Science. “This is equal to or perhaps even surpasses the
melting rate underneath the Totten Ice Shelf, which was thought to be
experiencing the highest melting rate in East Antarctica, at a rate of
10–11 meters per year.”'
"The Antarctic ice sheet, most of which is in East Antarctica, is
Earth’s largest freshwater reservoir. If it all melts, it could lead to a
60-meter rise in global sea levels. Current predictions estimate global
sea levels will rise one meter by 2100 and more than 15 meters by 2500.
Thus, it is very important for scientists to have a clear understanding
of how Antarctic continental ice is melting, and to more accurately
predict sea level fluctuations.
"Rising consumption by the affluent has a far greater environmental impact than the birth rate in poorer nations
When a major study
was published last month, showing that the global population is likely
to peak then crash much sooner than most scientists had assumed, I
naively imagined that people in rich nations would at last stop blaming
all the world’s environmental problems on population growth. I was
wrong. If anything, it appears to have got worse. Next week the BirthStrike movement
– founded by women who, by announcing their decision not to have
children, seek to focus our minds on the horror of environmental
collapse – will dissolve itself,
because its cause has been hijacked so virulently and persistently by
population obsessives. The founders explain that they had
“underestimated the power of ‘overpopulation’ as a growing form of
climate breakdown denial”.
It
is true that, in some parts of the world, population growth is a major
driver of particular kinds of ecological damage, such as the expansion
of small-scale agriculture into rainforests, the bushmeat trade and
local pressure on water and land for housing. But its global impact is
much smaller than many people claim.
The formula for calculating people’s environmental footprint is
simple, but widely misunderstood: Impact = Population x Affluence x
Technology (I = PAT). The global rate of consumption growth, before the
pandemic, was 3% a year. Population growth is 1%. Some people assume
this means that the rise in population bears one-third of the
responsibility for increased consumption. But population growth is
overwhelmingly concentrated among the world’s poorest people, who have scarcely any A or T
to multiply their P. The extra resource use and greenhouse gas
emissions caused by a rising human population are a tiny fraction of the
impact of consumption growth."
The last generation who can do something about climate change.
An extraordinary statement by 10 groups says the nation’s future prosperity is at risk without a coherent response
Business,
industry, farming and environmental leaders have joined forces to warn
Australia is “woefully unprepared” for the impact of climate change over
the coming decades and to urge the Morrison government to do far more
to cut emissions and improve the country’s resilience.
Food systems must adapt
An extraordinary statement
by 10 organisations, several with close ties to the Coalition, said
climate change was already having a “real and significant” impact on the
economy and community. The groups, representing the breadth of
Australian society, called on the federal and state governments to act
immediately to reduce and manage the risks.
Organisations including the Business Council of Australia, the
Australian Industry Group, the National Farmers’ Federation, the
Australian Aluminium Council and the ACTU said public debate about the
cost of doing more to reduce emissions had too often not considered the
cost of climate change to the economy, environment and society.
The statement, issued under the Australian Climate Roundtable banner, said Australia’s future prosperity would be at risk unless it had a coherent national response to the crisis. “The scale of costs and breadth of the impact of climate change for
people in Australia is deeply concerning and will escalate over time,”
it said. “It is in Australia’s national interest that we do all we can
to contribute to successful global action to minimise further
temperature rises and take action to manage the changes we can’t avoid.”
The statement said the expert advice made clear temperatures were
increasing, extreme climate-related events such as heatwaves and
bushfires were becoming more intense and frequent, and natural systems
were suffering irreversible damage. Some communities were now in a
constant state of recovery from successive natural disasters with
growing economic ramifications.
Agriculture must adapt
It said inaction would lead to unprecedented economic damage to
Australia and its regional trading partners, heightened risks to
financial stability – particularly as the insurance industry became
compromised – and significant threats to the agriculture, forestry,
tourism and fishing industries. There
would be severe pressure on government budgets due to a dramatic fall
in tax revenue and a rise in natural disasters that demanded emergency
response and recovery spending and there would be major and long-lived
social and health impacts, including loss of life.
The roundtable concluded Australia must play its fair part in
international efforts to limit average global heating to 1.5C above
pre-industrial levels, or at most to well below a 2C increase.
That meant setting a target of net-zero emissions by mid-century and
introducing policies to meet it that aimed to lift social equity and the
country’s global competitive advantage in a zero-emissions world.
The Morrison government has rejected calls that it back the
goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. The target has been adopted by more
than 70 countries, all Australian states and a growing number of
business and investors, including fossil fuel companies. National
emissions have dipped 1.5% since the Coalition was elected in 2013 after falling about 14% in six years under Labor.
Our cities will inundate from sea rise.
The roundtable said even with ambitious global action Australia faced
escalating costs due to unavoidable climate change from historical
emissions, and must act swiftly to improve resilience. It said the
country was “woefully unprepared” for the scale of threats that would
emerge as it lacked a systemic government response at any level.
The accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, caused
primarily by the burning of fossil fuels, had been worrying scientists
since the 1970s. The discovery of the “ozone hole” above Antarctica had
given atmospheric scientists enormous credibility and clout among the
public, and an international treaty banning chlorofluorocarbons, the
chemicals causing the problem, was swiftly signed.
Greenhouse gases
The Reagan White House worried
that a treaty on CO₂ might happen as quickly, and set about ensuring
the official scientific advice guiding leaders at the negotiations was
under at least partial control. So emerged the intergovernmental – rather than international – panel on climate change, in 1988.
Already before Sundsvall, in 1989, figures in the automotive and
fossil fuel industries of the US had set up the Global Climate Coalition
to argue against rapid action and to cast doubt on the evidence. Alongside thinktanks, such as the George Marshall Institute, and trade bodies, such as the Western Fuels Association, it kept up a steady stream of publishing in the media – including a movie – to discredit the science.
But their efforts to discourage political commitment were only
partially successful. The scientists held firm, and a climate treaty was
agreed in 1992. And so attention turned to the scientists themselves.
The Serengeti strategy
In 1996, there were sustained attacks on climate scientist Ben Santer, who had been responsible
for synthesising text in the IPCC’s second assessment report. He was
accused of having “tampered with” wording and somehow “twisting” the
intent of IPCC authors by Fred Seitz of the Global Climate Coalition.
Wildfire
In the late 1990s, Michael Mann, whose famous “hockey stick”
diagram of global temperatures was a key part of the third assessment
report, came under fire from right-wing thinktanks and even the Attorney General of Virginia. Mann called this attempt to pick on scientists perceived to be vulnerable to pressure “the Serengeti strategy”.
By singling out a sole scientist, it is possible for the forces of
“anti-science” to bring many more resources to bear on one individual,
exerting enormous pressure from multiple directions at once, making
defence difficult. It is similar to what happens when a group of lions
on the Serengeti seek out a vulnerable individual zebra at the edge of a
herd."
"Some Ages Have World Wars. Others Have Moonshots. Our Great Challenge is Preventing the Collapse of Civilization.
Let me explain what I mean by “accelerating pulsation of disaster.” Take the example of California’s wildfires. They’re the direct result
of climate change. Hotter temperatures, hotter oceans, bigger storms,
more lightning, drier vegetation — bang! A near certainty of historic
fires igniting."
Wildfire emergency
"So California’s burning…again. Just
like it was last year, and the year before that, and so on. In a few
months, it’ll be Australia’s turn to be hit by megafires, all over
again. They’ll be worse than last year, at least if we average it all
over a decade or so. That’s because, of course, fire is seasonal. And as
we head into the age of catastrophe, “megafire season” will become a
part of our lives. The world will develop Fire Belts, of which
California and Australia are becoming a part."
"Then there are Flood Belts. While the pandemic raged, much of Asia flooded. The West didn’t take much notice — even though China’s largest dam is now at it’s limits.
And yet the megafloods Asia just experienced are just like megafires —
natural phenomena that are getting worse on a seasonal, yearly cycle.
Within a decade or two, these floods will also threaten habitability.
Expect much greater sea level rise as land-ice melts
...................................
"Are
you beginning to get what I mean by “accelerating pulsation of
disaster” yet? As we head into the age of catastrophe, a new range of
calamities will become our dismal new normal. They’ll recur, in cycles.
Only each time the cycle spins, they’ll get worse and worse. Megafires,
megafloods, pandemics, extinctions."
Sea Rise will flood cities
................................................
The accelerating pulsation of disaster. Life
is going to feel scary, strange, dislocating, anxiety-inducing. As soon
as this disaster ebbs — phew, the megafire’s over! — here comes another
one. Now it’s megaflood season. Now it’s Covid season. Christ, now
there’s a new pandemic. What the? You and I were born live at the very
tail end of a golden age of human stability. That age is now over, and
the transition into the age of apocalypse is going to feel deeply
frightening. 2020 was just the beginning. It’s going to get much, much
worse, before — if — it ever gets better.
Melting Land ice on Greenland
As all
those cycles of catastrophe, operating at annual, semiannual, decadal
scales get worse and worse, ultimately, our systems will begin to
buckle, and then break. Faster and harder than we think.
Think of California right about now. A wildfire is bad. A respiratory pandemic is really bad. But megafires during a respiratory pandemic? What now? They have conflicting objectives: quarantine and stay at home, versus evacuate and firefight."
........................
Heatwaves kill
"They then face a stark dilemma. To
fight accelerating waves of natural calamity, fire, flood, drought,
famine, then saps resources that are needed to invest in tomorrow. We
fight that megafire, we try to build a barrier against tomorrow’s mega
flood. There go all those schools, hospitals, universities, libraries,
parks, roads, high-speed trains we wanted to build, expand, renew.
Simply fending off catastrophe will take a larger and large share of our resources. That
leaves less left over to invest in the things which really improve
people’s quality of life, whether healthcare, education, retirement, and
so on.
What happens as a result of that? Well, people’s qualities of life fall. Depression and frustration and unhappiness grow. And the predictable consequence of that is more extremism. Discontented masses tend to turn to demagogues, who blame all of a society’s problems on hated minorities. The age of catastrophe will be a boon to tomorrow’s Trumps.
And yet even all this just takes to about the mid 2030s or so. After that? That’s when the real fireworks begin."
"By about then, the limits of our civilization’s fundamental systems will have been breached.
Insurance and banking systems won’t be able to cover the losses of
burning states and flooded cities. They’ll go bankrupt, and probably
demand huge bailouts. Those bankruptcies will have a devastating
consequence. Not just the lack of credit, but a sharp rise in the cost
of it. Translation, you’re probably living in debt right now — whether
mortgage, credit card debt, car loans, student debt, medical debt, or
all of the above — and the interest rates on all that are going to
skyrocket. Somebody has to pay for the risk and costs of all this sudden
catastrophe. And it’s probably going to be you, in the hidden form of
paying massively more interest on all that debt you already can’t pay off."
Properties will become uninsurable
As
insurance and financial systems go broke, and the costs of accessing
money and credit spike, huge waves of businesses will close. Most small
businesses exist on razor-thin margins, from restaurants and bars to
nail salons and hobby shops. When their rents double and the interest on
their loans triples and they can’t get any more credit — at exactly the
same time as their customer base is falling apart? Bang! They go broke,
too. And all the millions of people they employ — small businesses are still the heart of the economy — are unemployed. The cycle of depression and poverty accelerates."
"This is not a drill, my friends. It’s
time to stop acting like it is, burying our pretty vacant little heads
in Netflix-and-chill and Instagram envy and the latest gender pronoun
and Fakebook friends. That’s all, history will rightly say, garbage for
the human mind and spirit. This is it. We’re not going to get another chance." "
