Exactly
12 months ago today, the huge Gospers Mountain Fire started from a
lightning strike north-west of Sydney. The fire burned for almost 80
days, and became the biggest forest fire in Australia's recorded
history.
One
year on, the fire has left a heart-wrenching scar on both the landscape
and the communities it tore through. This is what climate change looks
like.
In
just a few days, the Royal Commission will hand down its findings into
the 2019-20 bushfire season, and it's imperative that it clearly
acknowledges the role of climate change in fuelling the 2019-20
bushfires.
"True stories of loss and courage from people at the frontlines of Australia's worst climate-fuelled disasters - bushfire, heatwaves, flash-floods, disease outbreaks and now the latest in a new age of pandemics.
What are the health risks of climate change, why weren't we warned and what are Australian governments doing about it?"
"Suddenly, when the country caught fire, people realised what the government has not: that climate change is killing us.
But climate deaths didn’t start in 2019. Medical officers have been warning of a health emergency as temperatures rise for years, and for at least a decade Australians have been dying from the plagues of climate change – from heat, flood, disease, smoke. And now, pandemic.
In this detailed, considered, compassionate book, Paddy Manning paints us the big picture. He revisits some headline events which might have faded in our memory – the Brisbane Floods of 2011; Melbourne’s thunderstorm asthma fatalities of 2016 – and brings to our attention less well-publicised killers: the soil-borne diseases that amplify after a flood; the fact that heat itself has killed more people than all other catastrophes put together. In each case, he has interviewed scientists to explore the link to climate change and asks how – indeed, whether – we can better prepare ourselves in the future.
Most importantly, Manning has spoken to survivors and the families of victims, creating a monument to those we have already lost. Donna Rice and her 13-year-old son Jordan. Alison Tenner. The Buchanan family. These are stories of humans at their most vulnerable, and also often at their best. In extremis, people often act to save their loved ones above themselves. As Body Count shows, we are now all in extremis, and it is time to act.
Climate Fires in the USA
Respected journalist Paddy Manning tells these stories of tragedy and loss, heroism and resilience, in a book that is both monument and warning.
‘A climate emergency tour de force.' Dr Bob Brown
'True stories of heroism and unimaginable loss...Body Count is a brilliant exposition of why we must deal with the climate problem now.' Ross Garnaut
'Climate change kills. … Through the accounts of people who have lost
so much, Paddy Manning drives home the deeply personal impact of climate
change. Governments continue to ignore the impact on climate change on
human health at OUR peril. The future of our planet and our future
generations depends on everyone playing their part, today.' Professor Kerryn Phelps
'A stunningly powerful call to political leaders everywhere who hear
the warnings of the devastating impacts of climate change on health but
fail to act.' Dr Helen Haines, independent member for Indi
‘Moving stories of heroic courage and tragic loss. A pause to reflect on the lives lost and how urgently we need change.’ David Pocock, former Wallabies captain"
Vehicles ply on waterlogged Delhi-Gurgaon Expressway near Narsingpur after heavy rains, in Gurugram
..... "In a just world, this would be major news, even in the faraway U.S.
Perhaps stories about the local covid-19 crises we’re seeing across the
country would get more attention, but surely, the displacement of
millions deserves a spot on the front page. And yet.
If you didn’t
know these floods were happening, I’m not here to scold you. Tragedies
take place around the world every day, from bombings to hunger. Plus, here in the U.S., things are pretty awful
for lots of people, too. It’s difficult if not impossible to keep up
with every bad thing happening in all places. It’s also, frankly, easier
for many of us in the Global North to ignore crises that are happening
to poor people far away. When these crises do surface in news reports,
many of us are taught to treat them as inevitable — things are simply
more difficult for people “over there.”
This can all lead us to feel insulated from these horrors. We need to
Local residents look at a submerged bus in a waterlogged road
underpass after monsoon rainfalls in New Delhi
(Photo: Prakash Singh,
Getty Images)
fight that impulse. Caring about our fellow human beings is the right
thing to do, sure. But even if empathy isn’t your thing, there’s also an
uncomfortable reality: Climate disasters will eventually come for us
all if we don’t act now.
The deafening silence about climate
change-fuelled weather in the Global South isn’t limited to the recent
floods in South Asia. People have died in deluges in India and
Bangladesh in previous years, too — hundreds last year, 1,000 in 2018, over 1,200 in 2017. Hurricane Dorian, one of the most intense hurricanes to ever form in the Atlantic Ocean, absolutely ravaged the Bahamas just last year. Yet it has all but faded from popular memory in the U.S. aside from the saga of Sharpiegate. And nearly three years after Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico, thousands are still without homes and the power grid recently crashed again in the face of a moderate tropical storm yet these stories of widespread suffering are rarely found on front pages.
World leaders plan for climate change
All of this devastation was not inevitable. World leaders could have
taken steps to move us away from fossil fuels decades ago. They also
could have poured far more resources into helping vulnerable people
adapt before emergencies strike, and rebuild after they do. But they’ve
made clear they won’t do much of that of their own accord — they claim
it’s too expensive, too difficult, too impractical. We need a mass
movement that shows them we won’t take no for an answer, and part of
that is recognising the toll the crisis is already taking and acting
with urgency and compassion. World leaders already have blood on
their hands. Every life these actions could have saved is important.
Each of the hundreds of Indian and Bangladeshi people killed by the
ongoing monsoons in India deserved better. And we all deserve better
than to see this continue.
That’s not just because it’s the right
thing to do. It’s also our only option. Eventually, ecological horror
will come for all of us. It might be in a month, a year, or 20 years,
but eventually, a storm, heat wave, or tornado will come banging down
your door. The time to change course is now, starting with, at a
minimum, acknowledging the impacts the climate crisis on the poorest
among us.
We want climate action now
Even if the world does act, some climate disasters may
be inevitable since we’ve already overheated the planet and left people
vulnerable. We won’t be able to stop every flood or heat wave from
taking place. But what’s not inevitable is our treatment of some people
as disposable. If we prioritise taking steps to help people adapt and
prepare, countless lives could be saved. Stopping deforestation of
catchment areas and restoring wetlands, for instance, could go a long
way to better shielding communities in India and Bangladesh from rising
waters. So could national policies to provide more resilient housing to
all people, and international policies to prioritise aid to the
struggling countries that are hit hardest......" Go to complete Gizmodo story by Dharna Noor, August 21, 2020
Jake Sullivan says the former vice-president, if elected, won’t ‘pull any punches’ on what is a global problem Joe Biden
will not pull any punches with allies including Australia in seeking to
build international momentum for stronger action on the climate crisis,
an adviser to the US presidential candidate has said.
"If elected in November, Biden will hold heavy emitters such as
Biden and Harris
China
accountable for doing more “but he’s also going to push our friends to
do more as well”, according to Jake Sullivan, who was the national
security adviser to Biden when he was vice-president and is now in the
candidate’s inner circle.
In a wide-ranging podcast interview
with the Sydney-based Lowy Institute, Sullivan also signalled that
Biden would work closely with Australia and other regional allies in
responding to the challenges posed by the rise of China.
While Australia’s prime minister, Scott Morrison,
is likely to welcome the pledge of US coordination with allies on
regional security issues, there may be unease in government ranks about
the potential for tough conversations about Australia’s climate
policies.
The Coalition government has resisted calls to embrace a target of net-zero emissions by 2050 and it proposes to use Kyoto carryover credits to meet Australia’s 2030 emission reductions pledge. Some Coalition backbenchers still openly dispute climate science......"
The last generation who can do something about climate change.
An extraordinary statement by 10 groups says the nation’s future prosperity is at risk without a coherent response
Business,
industry, farming and environmental leaders have joined forces to warn
Australia is “woefully unprepared” for the impact of climate change over
the coming decades and to urge the Morrison government to do far more
to cut emissions and improve the country’s resilience.
Food systems must adapt
An extraordinary statement
by 10 organisations, several with close ties to the Coalition, said
climate change was already having a “real and significant” impact on the
economy and community. The groups, representing the breadth of
Australian society, called on the federal and state governments to act
immediately to reduce and manage the risks.
Organisations including the Business Council of Australia, the
Australian Industry Group, the National Farmers’ Federation, the
Australian Aluminium Council and the ACTU said public debate about the
cost of doing more to reduce emissions had too often not considered the
cost of climate change to the economy, environment and society.
The statement, issued under the Australian Climate Roundtable banner, said Australia’s future prosperity would be at risk unless it had a coherent national response to the crisis. “The scale of costs and breadth of the impact of climate change for
people in Australia is deeply concerning and will escalate over time,”
it said. “It is in Australia’s national interest that we do all we can
to contribute to successful global action to minimise further
temperature rises and take action to manage the changes we can’t avoid.”
The statement said the expert advice made clear temperatures were
increasing, extreme climate-related events such as heatwaves and
bushfires were becoming more intense and frequent, and natural systems
were suffering irreversible damage. Some communities were now in a
constant state of recovery from successive natural disasters with
growing economic ramifications.
Agriculture must adapt
It said inaction would lead to unprecedented economic damage to
Australia and its regional trading partners, heightened risks to
financial stability – particularly as the insurance industry became
compromised – and significant threats to the agriculture, forestry,
tourism and fishing industries. There
would be severe pressure on government budgets due to a dramatic fall
in tax revenue and a rise in natural disasters that demanded emergency
response and recovery spending and there would be major and long-lived
social and health impacts, including loss of life.
The roundtable concluded Australia must play its fair part in
international efforts to limit average global heating to 1.5C above
pre-industrial levels, or at most to well below a 2C increase.
That meant setting a target of net-zero emissions by mid-century and
introducing policies to meet it that aimed to lift social equity and the
country’s global competitive advantage in a zero-emissions world.
The Morrison government has rejected calls that it back the
goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. The target has been adopted by more
than 70 countries, all Australian states and a growing number of
business and investors, including fossil fuel companies. National
emissions have dipped 1.5% since the Coalition was elected in 2013 after falling about 14% in six years under Labor.
Our cities will inundate from sea rise.
The roundtable said even with ambitious global action Australia faced
escalating costs due to unavoidable climate change from historical
emissions, and must act swiftly to improve resilience. It said the
country was “woefully unprepared” for the scale of threats that would
emerge as it lacked a systemic government response at any level.
The accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, caused
primarily by the burning of fossil fuels, had been worrying scientists
since the 1970s. The discovery of the “ozone hole” above Antarctica had
given atmospheric scientists enormous credibility and clout among the
public, and an international treaty banning chlorofluorocarbons, the
chemicals causing the problem, was swiftly signed.
Greenhouse gases
The Reagan White House worried
that a treaty on CO₂ might happen as quickly, and set about ensuring
the official scientific advice guiding leaders at the negotiations was
under at least partial control. So emerged the intergovernmental – rather than international – panel on climate change, in 1988.
Already before Sundsvall, in 1989, figures in the automotive and
fossil fuel industries of the US had set up the Global Climate Coalition
to argue against rapid action and to cast doubt on the evidence. Alongside thinktanks, such as the George Marshall Institute, and trade bodies, such as the Western Fuels Association, it kept up a steady stream of publishing in the media – including a movie – to discredit the science.
But their efforts to discourage political commitment were only
partially successful. The scientists held firm, and a climate treaty was
agreed in 1992. And so attention turned to the scientists themselves.
The Serengeti strategy
In 1996, there were sustained attacks on climate scientist Ben Santer, who had been responsible
for synthesising text in the IPCC’s second assessment report. He was
accused of having “tampered with” wording and somehow “twisting” the
intent of IPCC authors by Fred Seitz of the Global Climate Coalition.
Wildfire
In the late 1990s, Michael Mann, whose famous “hockey stick”
diagram of global temperatures was a key part of the third assessment
report, came under fire from right-wing thinktanks and even the Attorney General of Virginia. Mann called this attempt to pick on scientists perceived to be vulnerable to pressure “the Serengeti strategy”.
By singling out a sole scientist, it is possible for the forces of
“anti-science” to bring many more resources to bear on one individual,
exerting enormous pressure from multiple directions at once, making
defence difficult. It is similar to what happens when a group of lions
on the Serengeti seek out a vulnerable individual zebra at the edge of a
herd."
"Some Ages Have World Wars. Others Have Moonshots. Our Great Challenge is Preventing the Collapse of Civilization.
Let me explain what I mean by “accelerating pulsation of disaster.” Take the example of California’s wildfires. They’re the direct result
of climate change. Hotter temperatures, hotter oceans, bigger storms,
more lightning, drier vegetation — bang! A near certainty of historic
fires igniting."
Wildfire emergency
"So California’s burning…again. Just
like it was last year, and the year before that, and so on. In a few
months, it’ll be Australia’s turn to be hit by megafires, all over
again. They’ll be worse than last year, at least if we average it all
over a decade or so. That’s because, of course, fire is seasonal. And as
we head into the age of catastrophe, “megafire season” will become a
part of our lives. The world will develop Fire Belts, of which
California and Australia are becoming a part."
"Then there are Flood Belts. While the pandemic raged, much of Asia flooded. The West didn’t take much notice — even though China’s largest dam is now at it’s limits.
And yet the megafloods Asia just experienced are just like megafires —
natural phenomena that are getting worse on a seasonal, yearly cycle.
Within a decade or two, these floods will also threaten habitability.
Expect much greater sea level rise as land-ice melts
...................................
"Are
you beginning to get what I mean by “accelerating pulsation of
disaster” yet? As we head into the age of catastrophe, a new range of
calamities will become our dismal new normal. They’ll recur, in cycles.
Only each time the cycle spins, they’ll get worse and worse. Megafires,
megafloods, pandemics, extinctions."
Sea Rise will flood cities
................................................
The accelerating pulsation of disaster. Life
is going to feel scary, strange, dislocating, anxiety-inducing. As soon
as this disaster ebbs — phew, the megafire’s over! — here comes another
one. Now it’s megaflood season. Now it’s Covid season. Christ, now
there’s a new pandemic. What the? You and I were born live at the very
tail end of a golden age of human stability. That age is now over, and
the transition into the age of apocalypse is going to feel deeply
frightening. 2020 was just the beginning. It’s going to get much, much
worse, before — if — it ever gets better.
Melting Land ice on Greenland
As all
those cycles of catastrophe, operating at annual, semiannual, decadal
scales get worse and worse, ultimately, our systems will begin to
buckle, and then break. Faster and harder than we think.
Think of California right about now. A wildfire is bad. A respiratory pandemic is really bad. But megafires during a respiratory pandemic? What now? They have conflicting objectives: quarantine and stay at home, versus evacuate and firefight."
........................
Heatwaves kill
"They then face a stark dilemma. To
fight accelerating waves of natural calamity, fire, flood, drought,
famine, then saps resources that are needed to invest in tomorrow. We
fight that megafire, we try to build a barrier against tomorrow’s mega
flood. There go all those schools, hospitals, universities, libraries,
parks, roads, high-speed trains we wanted to build, expand, renew.
Simply fending off catastrophe will take a larger and large share of our resources. That
leaves less left over to invest in the things which really improve
people’s quality of life, whether healthcare, education, retirement, and
so on.
What happens as a result of that? Well, people’s qualities of life fall. Depression and frustration and unhappiness grow. And the predictable consequence of that is more extremism. Discontented masses tend to turn to demagogues, who blame all of a society’s problems on hated minorities. The age of catastrophe will be a boon to tomorrow’s Trumps.
And yet even all this just takes to about the mid 2030s or so. After that? That’s when the real fireworks begin."
"By about then, the limits of our civilization’s fundamental systems will have been breached.
Insurance and banking systems won’t be able to cover the losses of
burning states and flooded cities. They’ll go bankrupt, and probably
demand huge bailouts. Those bankruptcies will have a devastating
consequence. Not just the lack of credit, but a sharp rise in the cost
of it. Translation, you’re probably living in debt right now — whether
mortgage, credit card debt, car loans, student debt, medical debt, or
all of the above — and the interest rates on all that are going to
skyrocket. Somebody has to pay for the risk and costs of all this sudden
catastrophe. And it’s probably going to be you, in the hidden form of
paying massively more interest on all that debt you already can’t pay off."
Properties will become uninsurable
As
insurance and financial systems go broke, and the costs of accessing
money and credit spike, huge waves of businesses will close. Most small
businesses exist on razor-thin margins, from restaurants and bars to
nail salons and hobby shops. When their rents double and the interest on
their loans triples and they can’t get any more credit — at exactly the
same time as their customer base is falling apart? Bang! They go broke,
too. And all the millions of people they employ — small businesses are still the heart of the economy — are unemployed. The cycle of depression and poverty accelerates."
"This is not a drill, my friends. It’s
time to stop acting like it is, burying our pretty vacant little heads
in Netflix-and-chill and Instagram envy and the latest gender pronoun
and Fakebook friends. That’s all, history will rightly say, garbage for
the human mind and spirit. This is it. We’re not going to get another chance." "
"Feeling miserable, anxious, helpless and just generally terrible because the world is becoming less habitable? You're not alone.
"The
good news is there are strategies that may help you cope. The bad news
is the pandemic we're now facing may test your passion and enthusiasm
for climate action.
Kurtis Baute recently sought out
professional help to cope with
his despair about climate change.
(Supplied: Kurtis Baute)
For the past 18 months, Canadian scientist Kurtis Baute says he has been dealing with a lot of 'climate grief'.
"Basically
I can't stop thinking about the fact that millions of people, real
people, are dying or will die because of something that is completely
unavoidable," he recently announced on his YouTube channel.
"We
can stop using fossil fuels but so far we've completely failed to do
so...it feels completely out of control and it's depressing."
Climate grief — or eco anxiety/despair — is a strong
psychological response to the current and future loss of habitats,
species and ecosystems.
It's recognised by the
Australian Psychological Society (APS) and sufferers may feel emotions
like fear, anger, guilt, shame, grief, loss and helplessness.
It
can be related to the direct impacts of climate change, such as drought
or bushfire. But it can also take the form of a sense of doom or even
existential crisis about our warming world.
In some ways it's a lot like the grief we experience when someone dies.
Climate
grief is often categorised as a form of disenfranchised grief which
means it isn't always publicly or openly acknowledged.
"There's
no ritual around loss of environment," says Tristan Snell, a
counselling psychologist and researcher in environmental psychology at
Deakin University.
"When you lose someone, there's a funeral and all
sorts of ways people connect and this helps process that loss. That's
just not the case for loss of environment."
People
experiencing disenfranchised grief can feel unsupported or
The thought of climate catastrophe can be overwhelming
ashamed, and
consequently can be very reluctant to talk with friends, family or a
professional.
"People may feel this isn't something someone else can help with," says Dr Snell.
This can then snowball into major physical and mental health problems.
Some will feel this more than others
Researchers,
including Dr Snell, are currently trying to gauge the mental health
impacts of climate change and recent climate-related events on
Australians with this survey which you can get involved in.
Clinical psychologists are developing strategies to help people work through climate grief, but research is still quite limited.
However you may find the follow tactics help with feelings of emotional distress:
• Gather trusted and authoritative information on the topic to ensure your knowledge on climate change is correct • Become
more environmentally engaged by getting involved in land care or tree
planting for example — taking action to better the planet is thought to
relieve some anticipatory grief • Spend time in nature to remind yourself it's a source of strength
• Talk with like-minded family or friends and if needed, seek professional help"
Searise is already redrawing coastlines around the world. What happens when the coast retreats through a major city?
We look at how the world map will change in the year 2100, and what coastal cities can do to defend themselves.
Correction: An early version of this video suggested that researchers expect to see four feet of sea level rise by the end of the century. While researchers do expect to see at least that level of sea level rise in the future, the exact timing is difficult to project. We regret the error.
